Throughout the pre-New Year week, the euro has been consolidating within a range of 1.0350–1.0461, which is favorable for building momentum for a downward move. If the euro were gathering strength for a reversal to growth, it would most likely consolidate within the 1.0461–1.0598 range.

The previous consolidation in this range from November 25 to December 17 proved unsuccessful for the bulls. Now, the bears appear ready for another downward breakout below 1.0350. A consolidation below this level would pave the way for the euro to fall below parity, potentially leading to a sharp move in the thin market. This could happen as soon as the new year.

On the four-hour chart, the price has stalled near the balance line. The MACD line, currently around 1.0440, may stop and reverse a potential sluggish upward movement. The Marlin oscillator, which had been rising ahead of the price, is already showing signs of returning to bearish territory. We will monitor the situation for further developments.