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18.02.2025 10:44 AM
Stock Market on February 18th: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Continue Steady Growth
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U.S. stock index futures continue to show confident growth, driven by optimism surrounding high-level talks between the U.S. and Russia. S&P 500 futures rose by 0.4%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ gained more than 0.5%. Asian indices are also trading higher, though European stock futures declined amid concerns over the Ukraine negotiations.

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The mainland China stock index and a broad Asian equity benchmark slipped into negative territory, while technology stocks listed in Hong Kong also corrected from nearly three-year highs.

As noted earlier, high-level negotiations between the U.S. and Russia begin today in Saudi Arabia, aimed at discussing ways to end the Ukraine conflict. Notably, these talks will take place without any Ukrainian representatives.

Market Reaction and Bond Yields

Meanwhile, currency traders appear to be exercising patience, favoring the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened against all G10 currencies. The stronger dollar has also put pressure on the bond market. Investors returning from the Presidents' Day holiday are reassessing risk amid the prospect of higher interest rates for an extended period. This has pushed up yields across the U.S. Treasury curve, particularly on short- and medium-term bonds, which are the most sensitive to shifts in monetary policy.

Market reactions underscore growing concerns over inflation trends and whether the Federal Reserve can achieve its 2% inflation target. Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next moves, coupled with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, is forcing market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of potential rate cuts. In the near term, Treasury yield dynamics will depend on upcoming economic data releases, including inflation figures, employment reports, and consumer spending data.

China's Market Response and Policy Shift

Chinese stocks gained earlier during the Asian session following a meeting between President Xi Jinping and business leaders on Monday. Some analysts interpreted the gathering as a potential turning point, signaling an end to years of regulatory crackdowns on the private sector. The meeting attracted some of the biggest names in Chinese business, spanning semiconductors, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence. This summit showcased Beijing's softened stance toward private enterprises, which remain a driving force of China's economy.

In Europe, investors are also awaiting the outcome of negotiations in Saudi Arabia, which follow last week's notable phone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

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Commodities Market Outlook

On the commodities front, oil stabilized after OPEC+ delegates stated that the group is considering delaying production increases. Gold maintained its upward trend, having risen 0.5% on Monday. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have raised their year-end gold price target to $3,100 per ounce, citing strong central bank purchases and increased inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Technical Outlook for S&P 500

Demand for U.S. equities remains strong. The key objective for buyers today is to break through the nearest resistance level at $6,138. A successful breakout would extend the uptrend, paving the way for a move toward $6,152. Maintaining control above $6,169 would further strengthen bullish momentum.

However, if risk appetite declines and the market pulls back, buyers must step in around $6,127. A break below this level would quickly push the index back to $6,117, potentially opening the door for a deeper decline toward $6,107.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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