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18.03.2025 07:08 AM
What to Pay Attention to on March 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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A large number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday, but none of them are significant. For example, the Eurozone and Germany will publish ZEW economic sentiment indices, which, in our opinion, will not impact traders. In the U.S., reports on housing starts, building permits, and industrial production will be released. All these reports may have a minimal influence on the dollar's intraday movements but nothing more. Monday showed that the dollar can weaken without news or data releases.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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There is absolutely nothing noteworthy among Tuesday's fundamental events. At this time, there are not many questions for central banks. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will hold meetings this week, and the market is almost certain that no changes to monetary policy parameters will be made in either case. Thus, the main intrigue lies in the speeches of Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell. However, two days before the meetings, no members of the monetary committees can give interviews or comment on the situation and upcoming regulatory decisions.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in any direction again, as the market is currently trading on emotions, and its sole driver is Donald Trump. The dollar may come under renewed pressure if the U.S. president announces new sanctions or tariffs. If there is no news from Trump, the dollar may still fall. Trading should be based solely on technical levels.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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