Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency Pair

The test of the 1.0415 level in the first half of the day coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct market entry point. As a result, the pair moved upward by 10 points the first time and reached the target level of 1.0440 on the second attempt.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. data on the goods trade balance and wholesale inventories will be released. While these indicators are unlikely to significantly impact financial markets or the country's economic policy, analyzing the trade balance will allow us to assess the state of export-import operations, which play a key role in GDP formation. Strong export data could indicate growing demand for U.S. goods abroad, potentially supporting price stability and jobs. Conversely, increased imports might signal heightened consumer demand domestically and a strengthening dollar, which in some cases could raise concerns about the trade balance deficit.

Intraday Strategy: I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today upon reaching the 1.0450 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0481. At 1.0481, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point move from the entry point. Euro growth today is likely to occur only within the sideways channel.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0426 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0450 and 1.0481.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro after reaching the 1.0426 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0394, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point move. Selling pressure may return after strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0450 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0426 and 1.0394.

Chart Details:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Predicted price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Predicted price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is essential to monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders:

Forex market beginners must make decisions very cautiously when entering the market. It is best to avoid trading before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade with large volumes without applying money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.