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23.09.2024 01:04 PM
Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP, and Gold on September 23

EUR/USD

Brief Analysis:

The downward wave algorithm from April 16 continues to push the EUR/USD pair toward the upper part of the chart. A month ago, the price reached the lower boundary of a strong resistance zone. Since late August, the price has been moving sideways, forming an incomplete corrective part (B). Before the next upward surge, the structure needs to complete this correction.

Forecast for the Week:

In the coming days, an upward trend is expected, with the euro rising to calculated resistance levels. Next week, a reversal is anticipated in this zone, followed by a resumption of the downward movement. The calculated support and resistance zones indicate the expected weekly movement range for the pair.

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Potential Reversal Zones:

  • Resistance: 1.1230/1.1280
  • Support: 1.1000/1.0500

Recommendations:

  • Buying: Can be considered in individual sessions with a reduced position size once confirmed reversal signals appear in the resistance zone.
  • Selling: Premature until reversal signals emerge around the resistance zone.

USD/JPY

Brief Analysis:

Since August 5, an upward wave with a high wave level has been forming against the previously dominant trend on the Japanese yen chart. The middle part (B) of this structure is nearing completion. Before initiating the final part (C), the price must complete the corrective structure.

Forecast for the Week:

In the coming days, the most likely scenario is a sideways drift along the calculated resistance boundaries, with a possible brief test of the upper boundary. Toward the weekend, increased volatility and a decline in the pair's price are expected, potentially triggered by the release of important economic news.

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Potential Reversal Zones:

  • Resistance: 144.40/144.90
  • Support: 140.30/139.80

Recommendations:

  • Buying: High-risk due to low potential and may lead to losses.
  • Selling: Could become the primary trading direction once reversal signals appear near the resistance zone in your trading systems.

GBP/JPY

Brief Analysis:

The upward wave that began in August continues to dominate the GBP/JPY pair. The unfinished section (C) started on September 11. The quotes are approaching the lower boundary of a broad potential reversal zone on the larger timeframe. As of the analysis, the wave structure is incomplete.

Forecast for the Week:

In the upcoming days, predominantly sideways price movement is expected. A decline toward the support zone is possible. In the second half of the week, the flat period is anticipated to end, with active price growth resuming. Increased volatility may coincide with the release of important economic data.

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Potential Reversal Zones:

  • Resistance: 193.50/194.00
  • Support: 189.50/189.00

Recommendations:

  • Selling: Offers low potential and carries high risk.
  • Buying: Can be considered for trades after confirmed reversal signals appear in the support area.

USD/CAD

Brief Analysis:

The trend direction of the USD/CAD pair is set by an upward wave that started in late August. Over the past two weeks, the highs and lows have formed an extended corrective flat pattern on the chart. Its structure appears complete, but no imminent reversal signals are present.

Forecast for the Week:

In the coming days, a sideways movement is likely, with the price remaining within the support boundaries. A reversal and resumption of the upward trend are expected thereafter. The calculated resistance lies at the lower boundary of the preliminary target zone for the entire wave.

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Potential Reversal Zones:

  • Resistance: 1.3670/1.3720
  • Support: 1.3530/1.3480

Recommendations:

  • Selling: Risky with low potential.
  • Buying: May become profitable once confirmed signals from your trading systems appear near the support zone. It's essential to consider the limited potential for further price rises.

NZD/USD

Brief Analysis:

The current wave structure on the NZD/USD chart is upward, beginning in late July this year. Over the past month, a corrective flat has been developing, which remains incomplete at the time of analysis. The preliminary target zone aligns with the lower boundary of a strong reversal zone on the larger timeframe.

Forecast for the Week:

In the coming days, a sideways movement with an upward vector is likely, with the price expected to stay within the resistance levels. Toward the end of the week, a reversal is anticipated, and the bearish movement is expected to resume. The calculated support indicates the expected upper boundary of the pair's weekly movement.

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Potential Reversal Zones:

  • Resistance: 0.6270/0.6320
  • Support: 0.6100/0.6050

Recommendations:

  • Selling: Possible in fractional volumes within individual sessions.
  • Buying: Not relevant until confirmed reversal signals appear in your trading systems.

EUR/GBP

Brief Analysis:

The price movements of the EUR/GBP pair have been guided by a downward wave since September of last year. It is forming as a shifting plane, with the unfinished section (C) beginning on August 8. After the current intermediate correction completes, the downward price movement is expected to resume.

Forecast for the Week:

At the start of the upcoming week, a sideways movement is expected, with a brief rise in price toward the resistance zone possible. As the weekend approaches, the likelihood of a reversal and resumption of the downward trend increases. A price breakout beyond the calculated zones is unlikely.

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Potential Reversal Zones:

  • Resistance: 0.8450/0.8500
  • Support: 0.8300/0.8250

Recommendations:

  • Buying: Permitted on a short-term basis within individual sessions.
  • Selling: May be employed in trading once relevant signals appear in the calculated resistance zone

Gold

Analysis:

The upward wave that started in October last year continues on the gold chart. On the daily timeframe, it forms the final segment of the trend, structured as a fluctuating pattern.

Forecast:

At the start of the upcoming week, a brief price increase toward the resistance zone is expected. Afterward, a sideways movement is anticipated, forming conditions for a reversal and initiating a downward trend.

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Potential Reversal Zones:

  • Resistance: 2640.0/2660.0
  • Support: 2560.0/2540.0

Recommendations:

  • Buying: Low potential and carries a high risk.
  • Selling: Will become relevant for trading once confirmed reversal signals emerge near the resistance zone.

Explanations: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A-B-C). The analysis focuses on the most recent, unfinished wave at each timeframe. Dotted lines represent projected price movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not consider the time duration of price movements.

Isabel Clark,
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EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
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