Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1122 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began rising above the zero level, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro in line with the ongoing upward trend, which resulted in a profit of around 20 points. The data from the IFO Institute in Germany dampened the overall outlook for risk asset buyers but did not significantly impact their sentiment. Several reports on the U.S. economy are expected, which could potentially turn the euro downward. These include data on the Consumer Confidence Index, changes in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index in the 20 largest cities, the Housing Price Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Additionally, everyone will be closely listening to the interview with FOMC member Michelle Bowman, whose dovish remarks might create certain challenges for USD buyers. Weak economic data and a dovish speech from Bowman could push the euro toward last week's highs. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price around 1.1149 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.1175 level. At the 1.1175 level, I will exit the market and open a short position on the euro, expecting a 30-35 point move from the entry point. A strong upward move for the euro today can be expected only if U.S. statistics are very poor. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just beginning its upward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1122 price level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to reach the opposite levels of 1.1149 and 1.1174.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1122 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1095 level, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if U.S. statistics are strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1149 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1122 and 1.1095.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin Green Line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.