Analysis of Wednesday's Trades
1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair continued its sluggish downward movement. However, it cannot be considered sluggish in the literal sense, as the price has been falling for nearly two weeks with almost no pauses or corrections. This week's fundamental background is unexciting, and the macroeconomic data is practically absent. As a result, market volatility has sharply decreased. Today, it might increase following the release of the US inflation report, and we might even see a correction. However, since everyone is anticipating a correction, market makers might push the price even lower when no one expects it. Only after that might a correction begin. Essentially, there is not much more to say about the British pound. It remains highly overbought, so we expect only a decline in the medium-term outlook.
5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair
In the 5-minute time frame on Wednesday, a reasonably good sell signal was formed near the 1.3102-1.3107 area. After its formation, the price quickly fell by about 35 pips, recovered during the day, and consolidated until the end. The pair did not reach the target level of 1.3043. Today, movements in various directions are possible during the US trading session.
How to Trade on Thursday:
The GBP/USD pair has broken the upward trend in the hourly time frame. The US dollar has begun its long-awaited growth, but caution is advised when selling, as the pair has not even attempted to correct over the past two weeks, and today is the release of the US inflation report. However, we fully support the pair's decline in the medium term, as we believe it is the only logical scenario.
On Thursday, the British pound may continue its sluggish decline, as it failed to consolidate above the 1.3102-1.3107 area. However, a sharp drop during the US session, followed by an even more substantial rise, which could mark the beginning of a correction, is possible today.
In the 5-minute time frame, you can currently trade using the levels of 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3365, 1.3428-1.3440, 1.3488, and 1.3537. On Thursday, no significant events are planned in the UK, but the US inflation report will be released, which could trigger movements in different directions over a short period. Be careful.
Basic Rules of the Trading System:
- The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (bounce or break through a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades were opened near a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trades should be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
- In the hourly time frame, it's preferable to trade based on MACD signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
- If two levels are very close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
- When moving 20 pips in the intended direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.
What's on the Charts:
Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.
Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.
Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.
