Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.84 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, missing a potential move. Today's weak figures on changes in the volume of bank lending in Japan and the index of purchase prices for goods for Japanese corporations led to another yen sell-off against the dollar, which only strengthened the pair's upward potential, allowing buyers to achieve another weekly high. Further growth of USD/JPY will depend entirely on U.S. data, so a minor downward correction can be expected in the first half of the day. I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 149.40 (green line on the chart) with a target of 150.04 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 150.04 level, I plan to exit the buys and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Further growth of the pair can be expected as part of the ongoing trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.79 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth towards the opposite levels of 149.40 and 150.04 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking through the 148.79 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 148.11 level, where I plan to exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if there is weak activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.40 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 148.79 and 148.11 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.

Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.

Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders in the forex market should carefully make entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop-loss orders, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.