So, the most significant events of December are behind us. As the market enters a holiday-induced lull, the "thin" market may display heightened sensitivity, increasing the possibility of abnormal price swings, especially against a nearly empty economic calendar.
However, the upcoming week will still feature several important macroeconomic reports, particularly for the EUR/USD pair.
Monday
During the European trading session, Germany will release its Import Price Index. This indicator reflects changes in imported goods and services prices, serving as an early signal of inflation trends or confirming existing ones. Forecasts suggest the index will rise to 0.7% in November (from 0.6% previously). On an annual basis, the indicator is expected to jump to 1.0%, marking the fastest growth rate since March 2023. If the data meets or exceeds forecasts, the euro could gain support, as the index has been in negative territory for the past two months.
However, the most critical report of Monday will come during the U.S. session: the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for December. Over the past two months, the index has been rising sharply. For comparison, it stood at 99.2 points in September, then climbed to 109.6 in October and 111.7 in November. December's forecast calls for a further increase to 112.9, the highest reading since July 2023.
Last week, the final estimate of U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was unexpectedly revised upward from 2.8% to 3.1%. A strong consumer confidence reading could complement this positive picture for the greenback, especially if it beats expectations.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, the U.S. will release Durable Goods Orders data. Preliminary forecasts suggest the total volume of orders will decline by 0.3% in November (following a 0.2% increase in the previous month). Excluding transportation, orders are expected to rise by 0.3% after two consecutive months of decline.
Additionally, November data on New Home Sales will be published, potentially supporting the U.S. dollar. Sales are expected to surge by 8.2% (a yearly high) after a sharp 17% drop in the previous month.
Another Tuesday release will be the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, based on surveys of manufacturing firms in the region (which includes Maryland, the District of Columbia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and most of West Virginia). Typically, this index has limited market impact but could provoke volatility amid a sparse economic calendar. Forecasts indicate a reading of -11 points, an improvement from the previous two months' reading of -14.
Wednesday
The EUR/USD pair's economic calendar for Wednesday is entirely empty. As the Catholic world celebrates Christmas, many trading platforms will be closed, effectively making Wednesday a holiday for the forex market.
Thursday
Thursday is also expected to be quiet on the market, with post-holiday calm prevailing.
The only noteworthy macroeconomic report will be the data on Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. Over the last two weeks (late November and early December), claims rose significantly, putting pressure on the dollar. However, contrary to forecasts of 245,000 claims last week, the indicator fell to 220,000. Preliminary estimates suggest a further decline to 216,000. Given the sparse economic calendar, such a result could support the dollar.
Friday
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release a preliminary estimate of the International Trade Balance in Goods on Friday. Early data suggest the November trade deficit in goods will total $101 billion (compared to $99 billion in October). The report will only impact the dollar if it significantly deviates from expectations.
Data on Wholesale Inventories will also be published. Although secondary in importance, against the background of an empty calendar, this report could attract attention if it surprises the market. Forecasts indicate a 0.3% increase in November, following a 0.2% rise in October.
Conclusions
The coming days may bring "flat calm" to the forex market. The EUR/USD pair's movement will likely depend on occasional surprises, such as potential developments from Donald Trump, who seems keen on reigniting past "wars" from his first term.
From a technical standpoint, on the D1 timeframe, the pair is positioned between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator and below all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which has generated a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. The 1.0370 level (the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart) serves as the first target for a southern move, while the primary target is 1.0330, corresponding to the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart.
