فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 27.10.2022

27.10.2022 01:35 PM

US premarket on October 27: Economists no longer see strong growth in US economy in Q3

On Thursday, US stock index futures fell after traders digested earnings and expenses reports from major technology companies and prepared for another massive rate hike by the European Central Bank. Traders are closely watching fairly important fundamental data on the US economy for the third quarter of this year.

Futures contracts on the S&P 500 index declined by 0.2%, while futures on the Nasdaq 100 index dropped by 0.3%. Today, Meta Platforms Inc. plummeted by 21% in the premarket after Facebook's parent company reported a disappointing earnings and expenses outlook and asked investors to remain patient.

10-year Treasury yields have rebounded after falling below 4%, with investors still counting on less aggressive rate hikes from the Fed as earnings reports point to slowing growth.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell, with Credit Suisse Group AG shares falling more than 15% on reports of a fourth straight quarter of losses. Shell Plc rose slightly after news that the second-largest oil company made a fairly good profit.

As it was noted above, the European Central Bank is going to raise rates today and face its fears about a recession in the economy. The ECB is expected to raise its key interest rate by 75 basis points, the highest level in more than a decade. According to economists, the rate is likely to fall to 50 basis points this December.

The recent weak reports on PMI Services and PMI Manufacturing and a significant decline in new home sales in the US showed that the Fed's efforts to cool down the economy appear to be paying off. Economists expect the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth straight time next week. However, next year's top rate might only be 4.86% against the expected 5% a week ago. These expectations supported the market this week. The US GDP report is also to be released today. It is expected to grow by 2.4% in the third quarter. However, many economists are not convinced that such a result will actually be achieved after the retail sales data was released. The GDP data will be released after the ECB's decision along with data on durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims.

Oil continues to hover at the same levels after hitting its highs in the last two weeks.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500 index, after yesterday's growth, the day did not start well for the index. Now bulls need to protect the support of $3,808. While the instrument is trading above this level, demand for risky assets is likely to persist. It may also strengthen the index and push it above $3,835. If this scenario comes true, we may see an upward correction to the resistance of $3,861. The next target is located within the area of $3,905. If the index declines, bulls will have to be active near $3,808 and $3,773. If the S&P 500 index drops below these levels, it may decline below $3,735 and $3,699. This will likely open the way to a new support of $3,661.

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