Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0427 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's downWARD potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling the euro.

The euro has declined substantially, proving the presence of market participants ready to act on any good correction of the pair. During the second half of the day, the focus will be on the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, which could show positive changes and act as a catalyst for further dollar strengthening. Strong data would indicate economic recovery and an increase in household spending—an especially important factor amid ongoing inflationary pressure on consumers. If the data exceeds expectations, it may trigger a shift away from risk assets in favor of the dollar. Furthermore, the consumer confidence report could offer insights into future consumption trends. Higher confidence levels among buyers support economic growth.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.0405 area (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.0440. I plan to exit the market at 1.0440 and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after weak U.S. statistics.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0387 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0405 and 1.0440.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0387 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0361, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong U.S. statistics.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0405 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.0387 and 1.0361.

Chart Details

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Suggested price for placing a Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Suggested price for placing a Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is better to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.