EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair essentially paused. Over the preceding days, the euro had been trading actively in both directions. Initially, the market anticipated an increase in inflation in the Eurozone, which led to increased euro purchases. However, disappointment over weaker-than-expected inflation data resulted in selling pressure on the euro. On Thursday, the market seemed to take a breather ahead of the critical U.S. labor market and unemployment reports scheduled for Friday.

Two minor reports were released in the Eurozone on Thursday. While they weren't insignificant, they didn't create major market movements. Industrial production in Germany showed a positive surprise, rising by 1.5% month-over-month, far exceeding the market's modest forecast of 0.5%. In contrast, retail sales in the Eurozone increased by only 0.1%, falling short of more optimistic projections. As a result, the euro did not experience significant support or pressure. Although the downward trend remains intact, there is a possibility of range-bound trading. This potential flat movement can be better seen on the 4-hour chart. If the U.S. data released today do not trigger a substantial rise in the dollar, a flat trading scenario becomes more likely.

There were no executable trading signals on Thursday. The pair exhibited low volatility and moved sideways throughout the day, failing to approach key levels or Ichimoku indicator lines. Consequently, no trading signals were generated, and there was no compelling reason to enter the market.

COT Report

According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, dated December 24, there has been a change in the positioning of non-commercial traders. While their net position had remained bullish for an extended period, bears have recently taken the lead. Two months ago, the number of short positions among professional traders surged, resulting in a net position that has become negative for the first time in a long time. This indicates that the euro is now being sold more frequently than it is being bought.

We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strength of the euro. For an extended period, technical analysis has indicated a consolidation zone, leading to a sideways market. On the weekly time frame, it is clear that since December 2022, the currency pair has been trading between 1.0448 and 1.1274. However, the recent break below the 1.0448 level has created new opportunities for further declines.

Currently, the red and blue lines in the COT chart have crossed each other and switched positions, signaling a bearish market trend. During the latest reporting week, the number of long positions in the "non-commercial" group increased by 6,800, while short positions grew by 9,400, leading to a further decline in the net position of 2,600.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the currency pair is trying to resume its three-month downtrend. We believe that this decline will continue in the medium term. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates only 1 to 2 times in 2025, which reflects a more hawkish stance than the market had anticipated. We see no grounds for a strong rally in the euro, and the bearish bias remains intact as long as the pair trades below the Ichimoku indicator lines.

On January 10, we would like to highlight the following trading levels: 1.0195, 1.0269, 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, 1.0585, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, and 1.0889. Additionally, the Senkou Span B (1.0342) and Kijun-sen (1.0355) lines are important to consider. Please note that the Ichimoku indicator lines can shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Furthermore, placing a stop loss at breakeven after a favorable move of 15 pips can help protect against potential losses if the signal proves to be false.

There are no major or significant events scheduled in the Eurozone on Friday. However, the U.S. will release reports on Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, average earnings, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. While all four reports are of varying importance, the market's focus will likely center on the first two.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.