Top.Mail.Ru
empty
25.02.2025 03:04 PM
GBP/USD Analysis – February 25th: The Pound is in No Rush to Decline

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains ambiguous but still comprehensible. There is a high probability of forming a long-term downward trend, with the main uncertainty revolving around wave 2 in 1, which appears rather unconvincing. However, wave 5 looks well-formed, leading me to conclude that the major wave 1 has been completed. If this assumption is correct, a series of corrective waves is currently unfolding, with targets near the 1.26 and 1.28 levels. The first two waves in this structure appear complete, while the third wave may conclude at any moment.

Given that the euro is likely continuing its correction, a similar correction is expected for the pound. A key factor is the Bank of England's (BoE) plan to implement four rate cuts in 2025, whereas the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower rates by no more than 50 basis points. The UK economy has repeatedly disappointed market participants, while the stronger U.S. economy has reinforced confidence in the dollar. These factors should prevent large-scale dollar selling and pound buying in the near term.

GBP/USD remained virtually unchanged on Tuesday. Over the past few hours, there has been a slight increase in demand for the pound, but it has not significantly impacted the overall trend. Wave C in 2 may have been completed on Monday, as it appears structured and finalized.

If there were upcoming reports from the UK, expectations of strong data could drive further strengthening of the pound. However, no major UK economic releases are scheduled.

In the U.S., the economic calendar is also lackluster. For instance, tomorrow's new home sales report is set for release. While it holds some importance, the likelihood of it sparking significant market activity is low. Traders are interested in strong price movements that present clear trading opportunities, not minor fluctuations of 30 points.

Several BoE officials have already spoken this week, with more speeches expected. However, for the market to gain momentum, there needs to be significant and previously unknown information from UK policymakers—a relatively rare occurrence.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

The wave pattern suggests that the downward trend is still unfolding, with its first wave now complete. The current focus should be on forming a clear corrective structure, after which new sell opportunities can be identified. The minimum targets for this correction have been reached around 1.26, and a further 200-point drop is highly probable.

While unexpected news could provide support for the pound, no such developments are evident at the moment, so a further decline is the most likely scenario.

On a higher wave scale, the structure has shifted, now indicating a downtrend, as the previous three-wave upward movement appears complete. If this assumption holds, we should anticipate a corrective wave 2 or B, followed by an impulse wave 3 or C.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear – complex formations are difficult to trade and often lead to unexpected changes.
  2. If market conditions are unclear, it is better to stay out rather than force a trade.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in price direction – always use protective stop-loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other methods, such as technical indicators and trading strategies, to strengthen the overall analysis.
Chin Zhao,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análise do GBP/USD em 21 de março de 2025

A estrutura de onda do GBP/USD permanece um tanto ambígua, mas, em geral, gerenciável. No momento, ainda há uma alta probabilidade de desenvolvimento de uma tendência de queda de longo

Chin Zhao 20:30 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 21 de março de 2025

O par EUR/USD não registrou nenhuma mudança na sexta-feira. Não houve nenhuma notícia no sentido direto da palavra hoje, de modo que o mercado não teve nada a que reagir

Chin Zhao 20:10 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 20 de março de 2025

A estrutura de onda no gráfico de 4 horas do EUR/USD está em risco de se tornar mais complexa. Desde 25 de setembro, uma nova tendência de baixa começou

Chin Zhao 19:52 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD - 18 de março

A estrutura da onda para GBP/USD permanece um pouco ambígua, mas de forma geral clara. Atualmente, há uma alta probabilidade de que uma tendência descendente de longo prazo esteja

Chin Zhao 22:36 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD - 18 de março

A estrutura da onda no gráfico de quatro horas corre o risco de se tornar mais complexa. Uma nova formação descendente começou a se desenvolver em 25 de setembro, configurando-se

Chin Zhao 22:25 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD - 17 de março

A análise da onda de 4 horas para o EUR/USD corre o risco de se transformar em uma estrutura mais complexa. Uma nova tendência de baixa começou

Chin Zhao 20:12 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Previsão semanal baseada em análise de onda simplificada para EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, #Bitcoin e #Ripple - 17 de março

Desde 3 de fevereiro deste ano, o gráfico do euro vem formando uma onda ascendente em zigue-zague. A análise da estrutura da onda indica que uma correção está se desenvolvendo

Isabel Clark 19:35 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD - 5 de março

O padrão de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas do EUR/USD parece claro e bem estruturado. Um novo ciclo de queda começou em 25 de setembro, formando uma estrutura impulsiva

Chin Zhao 19:25 2025-03-05 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD - 25 de fevereiro

A estrutura de onda do GBP/USD permanece um pouco ambígua, mas, no geral, é clara. Atualmente, há uma alta probabilidade de formação de uma tendência de baixa de longo prazo

Chin Zhao 20:50 2025-02-26 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD - 19 de fevereiro

O padrão de ondas do GBP/USD permanece um pouco ambíguo, mas, de forma geral, é claro. Ainda há uma alta probabilidade de uma tendência de queda de longo prazo, embora

Chin Zhao 20:37 2025-02-19 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.