Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The first test of the 1.0959 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Shortly after, another test of 1.0959 took place as the MACD indicator was returning from the oversold area, allowing scenario #2 for buying to play out, resulting in a 15-point rise in the pair. However, a more substantial upward movement did not follow, as the lack of economic data affected intraday volatility. In the second half of the day, we expect the publication of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, along with speeches from FOMC members Raphael Bostic, Lorie K. Logan, and Thomas Barkin. Statements from policymakers will play a crucial role in determining market intraday volatility as the minutes in the current context no longer play a significant role. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act according to the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area around 1.0972 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 1.1005 level. At the 1.1005 level, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. It is unlikely that we will see a significant upward movement in the euro today. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from it before buying.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0954 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposing levels of 1.0972 and 1.1005 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0954 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0925 level, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return in case of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it before selling.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0972 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward trend reversal in the market. A decline toward the opposing levels of 1.0954 and 1.0925 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested price for setting a take profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested price for setting a take profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to use the MACD indicator's overbought and oversold areas as a guide.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make market entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use risk management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I have provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.